Inside The Nest: A Trio of Turbulent Trades
Taylor Ward, Grayson Rodriguez, Brandon Nimmo, Marcus Semien, Sonny Gray
Welcome to the first issue of Inside The Nest, a newsletter named after my last name and dedicated to breaking down everything happening across the baseball world. Today, I’m diving into a trio of notable trades that sent ripples through MLB.
Taylor Ward for Grayson Rodriguez
In one of the more perplexing deals in recent years, Baltimore shipped off Grayson Rodriguez to the Angels for Taylor Ward.
Rodriguez, a former #1 pitching prospect, missed all of 2025 with a combination of injuries including right elbow inflammation and a right lat strain. He ultimately underwent right elbow debridement surgery in August 2025 to remove bone spurs and it has been reported that he expects to be ready for Spring Training. On the other end of the deal, Taylor Ward launched 36 home runs in 2025 while posting 2.9 fWAR across 157 games.
With those details out of the way… why did Baltimore do this trade???
Grayson Rodriguez is under team control through the 2029 season while Taylor Ward is a rental. To make matters even more confounding, Baltimore has plenty of young outfield options with names like Cowser and Beavers and are projected to have one of the weakest rotations in MLB. Not only does Rodriguez have mid-rotation upside, he is still on his rookie deal! Trading Rodriguez at his lowest value for a position of surplus makes me wonder exactly how frightening his medicals were. The acquisition of Taylor Ward does help the Orioles lineup which struggled with power last season. After all, Jordan Westburg’s 17 home runs ranked dead last for a team leader in 2025.
I feel like this trade is a clear win the Angels. Taylor Ward was likely not going to garner an exciting return with just 1 year left on his deal, but they were able to acquire a pitcher with immense raw talent for him. It wasn’t all lost for Baltimore though. If their notion on Rodriguez is as dire as it seems, they cashed out on his perceived value to bolster their lineup for 2026.
Marcus Semien for Brandon Nimmo
Another 1-for-1 deal that came out of nowhere!
New York shipped long-time Met Brandon Nimmo to Texas for the versatile, yet aging, Marcus Semien. This trade came after a report stating that the Rangers were looking to cut payroll in 2026, and this move does just that. Nimmo is set to earn $20M/yr for the remainder of his contract while Semien is up to $24M/yr. The big caveat to these values is that Nimmo and Semin are under contract through 2030 and 2028, respectively. So in actuality, the Rangers are on the hook for a larger guarantee of $101M vs $72M.
Despite Nimmo’s productive 2025, I feel like this trade is a trap for the Rangers. Already declining plate discipline and defensive metrics does not bode well for the future of a deal with 5 years left. He does, however, improve the Rangers offense which was their downfall last season. His bat should remain productive for the next few seasons with the hope that he can stick in the outfield for majority of his time in Texas.
On the other end, Semien was a black hole in the Rangers lineup in 2025. His 89 wRC+ was the worst of his career and he failed to hit over 20 home runs for the first time since the abridged 2020 season. It is worth noting that his .317 xwOBA sat closer to his 2024 results and push him much closer to a league average bat. Even if his power does not rebound, Semien grades out as one of the best defenders at second base with enough speed and plate discipline to be an impactful player.
Overall, this trade solved an issue each team needed an answer to in 2025. The Mets gets a solid 2B and the Rangers add an effective bat to an anemic lineup. I like it more for New York as they escape Nimmo’s potential disastrous contract. It seems lateral on paper, yet it feels like the start of a hectic offseason for both teams
Sonny Gray heads to Boston
Boston gets their #2 starter!
Gray is a data darling with the durability and arsenal to be one of the most effective pitchers in MLB. Gray bolsters Boston’s rotation and the $20M gives the Red Sox more flexibility to spend elsewhere. Gray ranked in the Top 15 in MLB is important metrics such as K-BB% and FIP. He tends to allows most of his hard hit balls to CF and RF, which should be eased with the presence of Rafaela and Abreu manning the OF.
The return for the Cardinals is very interesting. We are less a year removed from Richard Fitts being considered a top 100 prospects from multiple outlets and Brandon Clarke flirted with top prospect status before recurring blister issues cut his season short. I still think Fitts has the talent to be a solid backend starter thanks to the improved velocity he exhibited last season and his innate command. As for Clarke, he is more of a lottery ticket arm. He consistently hits triple digits from the left side and tore through MiLB batters with his impressive slider. I project him to be a fiery reliever, however the Cardinals have plenty of time to keep developing him as a starter.
I’d call this trade a win for both side. Boston gets an established starter who has strong underlying metrics at a reasonable price tag with the added cash. St. Louis gets MLB-ready pitching depth and a lottery ticket with electric stuff who at worst is a fire balling lefty RP.
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As a rangers fan, it’s been extremely frustrating to watch Semien the last two years. And even when we won the world series in 2023, he was abysmal in the playoffs. With his offensive decline being so fast, getting off his contract can’t be worse than Nimmo’s. I think nimmo altered his approach last year to try to hit for more power because his whiff% and chase% are still similar over the last several years. I am hopeful this offseason allows him to take care of his foot and get healthier!
As a Yankee fan glad hope Sonny Gray ends up Boston's #2, not scared of him in a big game. Even in Fantasy he's overrated and expect him to collapse when it goes bad for him.