Inside The Nest: Old Faces in New Places
Dylan Cease, Pete Alonso, Edwin Diaz, Devin Williams
Welcome to Inside The Nest, a newsletter dedicated to breaking down everything happening across the baseball world. Today, I’m diving into the biggest free agent signings on new teams.
Dylan Cease
Contract: $210M, 7 years with Toronto Blue Jays
Dylan Cease made a splash early this winter after signing what could end up being the largest deal dished out this offseason. Inconsistency has followed Cease throughout his career as he has sandwiched Cy Young quality seasons with disappointing campaigns, much to the disdain of White Sox and Padres fans alike. There are two things that are for certain when assessing the hard-throwing righty throughout his career: (1) Durability and (2) Strikeouts.
Cease has not missed a start in his career. Since his debut in 2019, he has made 188 consecutive starts — something that the Blue Jays have valued in recent years with their acquisition of Jose Berrios, Kevin Gausman, and Chris Bassist. Cease, along with those 2020s Blue Jays arms, ranks Top 10 in IP since the turn of the decade. Durability like this is tough to come by from a starter in a seemingly increasing wave of elbow and shoulder injuries. This ability was a main reason as to why the Blue Jays were comfortable on offering a 7-year deal to Cease.
As for his efficacy, Cease is a stuff monster. His fastball-slider combo effortlessly generates whiffs and provides him an sturdy foundation to sustain his elite strikeout rate. His has a handful of auxiliary pitches, all which grade out well, but do not carry the same oomph to support his production. The most interesting pitch in his arsenal is a whacky changeup which Cease rarely utilized. From reports following the signing, it sounds like the Blue Jays will try and leverage Cease’s strong pitch manipulation traits to sharpen up his offspeed and provide him a weapon to better attack LHH.
My verdict? I really like this signing by Toronto. On the surface it might seem like an overpay for an inconsistent starter. However, Cease provides reliability in some of the most important aspects of pitching. He will give the Blue Jays plenty of innings and fill them with strikeouts. Cease is comfortably a Top 15 pitcher in MLB for me and I cannot wait to watch him next season.
Devin Williams
Contract: $51M, 3 years with New York Mets
Devin Williams may have been the most unlucky player in MLB last season. He was destined to be the Yankees dominant closer — something they were lacking following the departure of Clay Holmes. Unfortunately, a league worst strand rate caused over a 2 run discrepancy between his ERA and FIP which saw Williams ultimately lose his 9th inning role during the middle of the season. There was really not much else that was different about Williams last season. His 34.7 K% was still among the best RP in baseball and his airbender changeup looked as good as ever.
This signing by the Mets is a great one. It immediately fills in the gap left by Edwin Diaz with a pitcher that is younger as has had better results throughout their careers. I understand if you are bearish about Williams entering 2026, but I assure you that it almost impossible for his luck to turn that sour once again.
Pete Alonso
Contract: $155M, 5 years with Baltimore Orioles
Pete Alonso bet on himself last offseason and it paid off in spades this winter with a brand new 155M contract with the Orioles. This contract followed a season where the slugger led all 1B with 38 home runs and posted an elite 141 wRC+. This spike in production aligned with improvements across the board in his underlying power metrics and a decrease in strikeouts. It finally looked like the hand issues that negatively impacted both Alonso’s 2023 and 2024 seasons are a thing of the past and the Orioles believe that his dominant offensive production will continue.
I think this signing will work out well for the Orioles. Alonso does not have any clear flaw with his bat and projects to be one of the most productive hitters in the league. My biggest gripe about shelling out a massive contract to Alonso is that he is effectively unplayable in the field. I would not surprised if by next season he is the Orioles full-time DH, which would further rely on his bat to match the value of his contract. The one thing that makes me more optimistic is that teams need to fill out their roster, including DH, so why not get one of the best ones out there. On a baseball level it feels like an overpay, but from a business point of view Alonso’s popularity and marketability more than close the gap financially.
Edwin Diaz
Contract: $69M, 3 years with Los Angeles Dodgers
This signing had me scratching my head. I thought Edwin Diaz was going to opt out of his deal with the Mets to sign a significantly longer and more lucrative deal, however only the latter came to fruition. He ended up signing a 3 year deal with the Dodgers which will see him receive ~8M more than if he decided to retain his contract in New York. I expected Diaz to sign a 9 figure deal and ride set the record for the biggest reliever deal of all time.
With my confounding thoughts out of the way, this deal feels very reasonable for the Dodgers. Yes, it is $23M for a reliever, but the production Diaz is expected to produce over the contract’s lifetime makes it a lot easier to swallow. He is very easily a Top 5 reliever in MLB and will provide integral value to a Dodgers team that struggled with their bullpen last season.
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